Published by NovenAI | April 2025

Introduction

As Australia continues to rely on skilled migration to drive its economic growth, understanding the application trends, processing speeds, and invitation rounds for different visa subclasses becomes crucial for potential applicants.

This report analyzes the most current trends in Australia’s skilled migration system as of March 2025, with a focus on Subclass 189 invitations, 190& 491 nominations, visa application trends, backlog issues, and processing speeds. By examining these trends, applicants can make informed decisions on the best strategies to enhance their chances of success in the highly competitive migration landscape.

Section1: Application Trend Analysis

Understanding the overall trends in visa applications is key to recognizing the dynamics at play within the Australian immigration system. In this section, we analyze the fluctuation in the volume of applications for Subclass 190 and 491 visas, as well as Subclass 189. These trends provide insight into the demand for skilled migration, and help predict the best times to apply based on historical data.

As of early 2025, we have seen significant variation in the number of applications for Subclass 189, 190, and 491 visas, with certain visa types experiencing seasonal spikes. A closer look at the data helps applicants determine when to expect an increase in demand and when it might be more strategic to apply.

The application trends for Australia’s skilled migration visas—Subclass 189, 190, and 491—reveal distinct patterns that are crucial for understanding the overall dynamics of the migration system. While all three visas experience fluctuations, 189 visa applications demonstrate the highest volatility, influenced by various factors such as invitation rounds, potential policy changes, and demand fluctuations.

189 Visa Applications

• Sharp Fluctuations: The 189 visa applications show significant variation from month to month. A sharp spike in November 2024 saw the number of applications exceed 7,000, marking the highest point of the year. This surge is likely linked to the invitation round, with more applicants seeking to submit their applications ahead of anticipated changes to the points threshold or policy.

• Decline and Rebound: The trend also shows a notable decline in September 2024, where applications dipped sharply before rebounding in November. This volatility is likely driven by the invitation rounds and adjustments to policy that can drastically affect applicant behavior, particularly as the Department of Home Affairs releases new invitation data.

190 & 491 Visas

• Relatively Stable Trends: In contrast, 190 and 491 visas exhibit more stable and consistent trends, with fewer sharp fluctuations in application numbers. This consistency could be attributed to the more predictable nature of state nominations, which tend to be less volatile compared to the highly competitive 189 visa system. State-based nominations are generally more stable because they are influenced by both national migration policies and state-specific needs.

Conclusion

• 189 Visa Applications: Highly volatile, largely influenced by policy changes, invitation rounds, and the points threshold. Applicants should remain vigilant and ready to submit their Expression of Interest (EOI) during periods of higher invitation likelihood, typically in the last quarter of the fiscal year.

• 190 & 491 Visa Applications: More consistent, reflecting the state nomination constraints that limit large-scale fluctuations. Applicants can anticipate relatively stable application periods, though opportunities may vary depending on each state’s nomination capacity and policy adjustments.

• Policy Windows: Applicants should particularly watch for major application surges between October and December, as these months traditionally coincide with new fiscal year allocations and adjustments to invitation processes.

Section 2: Backlog & Processing Speed

This section delves into the critical aspect of backlog and processing speed. By analyzing the volume of pending applications and processing times, applicants can understand how efficiently the immigration system is managing the influx of applications, and what the likely wait times are for different visa subclasses.

From 2022 to 2025, Australia’s immigration system has made strides in clearing backlogs, particularly for Subclass 189. However, states with higher demand for Subclass 190 and 491 visas have experienced slower processing speeds, affecting overall timelines. Understanding these patterns can give applicants a clearer view of when to expect delays and what strategies to adopt to avoid extended waiting periods.

Current State of Backlogs

• As of early 2025, Australia has made notable progress in reducing backlogs, especially for Subclass 189 visas, which saw a significant decrease in the number of pending applications. From a high of over 60,000 applications in mid-2022, the backlog for Subclass 189 is now below 20,000.

• Subclass 190 and 491 visas, however, continue to experience longer processing times due to the state-based nomination systems. These visas tend to be more regional and have lower priority, contributing to slower processing speeds compared to the more competitive and direct Subclass 189 route.

Expected Processing Times and Strategy:

• The pre-election period could result in uncertainty in immigration processing as the DHA prepares for a possible shift in immigration priorities based on the outcome of the election.

• Given the current backlog reduction for Subclass 189, applicants can expect a faster processing timeline compared to previous years. However, state nomination-based visas (190 and 491) may still experience some delays due to the regional allocation systems and unpredictable policy changes.

• Applicants should remain flexible, understanding that processing times could fluctuate significantly depending on the election results and changes in immigration priorities post-election.

Section 3: Invitation Trend for Subclass 189

Subclass 189 is a points-based visa for highly skilled workers. In this section, we analyze the invitation trends for Subclass 189 and identify how often invitations are issued, the fluctuations in the points threshold, and how different occupations are prioritized.

Invitation rounds for Subclass 189 have varied greatly, with some months showing high invitation numbers, especially for high-demand occupations. By examining past invitation data, we can better predict the likelihood of receiving an invitation, helping potential applicants decide when to submit their Expression of Interest (EOI).

The application process for the 189 visa can be highly unpredictable, with significant fluctuations in invitation rounds. Many applicants mistakenly believe that once they meet the minimum points requirement, an invitation will follow automatically. However, the reality is that policy changes, allocation fluctuations, and application volumes influence the timing of invitations. NovenAI can help applicants predict invitation rounds and optimize EOI submission strategy by offering real-time data and policy insights, ensuring they make informed decisions at the right moment.

Recent 10 invitation rounds for subclass 189:

Observations

• In late 2022, invitations occurred frequently (every 45–63 days) due to high quotas and backlog reduction needs.

• In 2023, gaps widened, with up to 207 days without any invitation.

• In 2024, the pattern became more regular, with intervals of 84 and 63 days.

Fiscal Year Consideration:

• Australia's fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30.

• Past years typically had 3–4 invitation rounds per fiscal year, with 2–3 months between each round.

• So far in the 2024-25 fiscal year, three invitation rounds have occurred:

  • June 13, 2024 – 5,292 invited

  • September 5, 2024 – 7,973 invited

  • November 7, 2024 – 15,000 invited

  • Total: 28,265 invitations issued

• However, no new round has occurred since November 2024, which is over 140 days ago – an unusually long pause.

Impact of Upcoming Federal Election

A crucial factor influencing the delay in 189 visa invitations is the imminent Australian Federal Election, scheduled for May 3, 2025. As announced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the election has set the stage for potential changes in Australia's immigration policy. Given the two-party divide, both the Labor Party (led by Albanese) and the Liberal Party (led by Peter Dutton) have markedly different views on migration:

• Labor Party’s Position: The Labor Party has advocated for a focus on strengthening the social safety net, including proposals to reduce student debt by 20%, invest in renewable energy, and create 120,000 new homes to address the housing crisis. These policies are designed to appeal to working-class voters, including those impacted by housing and job insecurity.

• Liberal Party’s Position: On the other hand, the Liberal Party has proposed significant immigration cuts, prioritizing local job creation and reducing reliance on foreign labor. This stance aligns with their broader agenda of economic conservatism, as they seek to control inflation and reduce the cost of living.

This political divide is likely contributing to the uncertainty and delay in issuing new invitations for Subclass 189, as the Department of Home Affairs (DHA) may be waiting for clearer policy direction following the election results.

The uncertainty surrounding Australia's immigration policies, particularly for skilled migrants, means that potential applicants should monitor the situation closely as policy shifts could have significant implications for 189 visa eligibility and invitation rounds.

Section 4: State Nomination Analysis for 190 Visa

State nomination is a crucial component of both Subclass 190 and Subclass 491 visas. In this section, we take a detailed look at how each state is utilizing its allocated nominations for these visas. We analyze the total quota for each state, how much has been used, and which states are still offering the best opportunities for applicants.

While some states have already exhausted their Subclass 190 quotas, others like New South Wales and Western Australia have low usage, indicating potential opportunities for new applicants. Understanding state-specific nomination trends is key for applicants who may want to consider state-sponsored migration pathways as part of their strategy.

Summary Table: 190 Visa Nomination Usage by State (as of 28 Feb 2025)

For the 190 visa, different occupations have varying priority levels across states, which directly affects the competition for state nominations. Some occupations are in high demand and prioritized by certain states, while others face more intense competition due to limited quotas.

Many applicants overlook how state preferences and priority occupation lists can impact their chances of receiving a nomination. NovenAI helps applicants by offering personalized insights into state nomination policies and occupation priorities, enabling them to plan their skills assessment and choose the best state based on their career path and current state opportunities.

VIC and NT: Exceptionally Active States (91.3% and 89.9%)

Victoria and the Northern Territory stand out for their exceptionally high usage rates, having already consumed over 90% of their allocated 190 visa nominations just two-thirds into the fiscal year. This indicates:

• Strong internal processing efficiency — suggesting these states are not only receiving but also actively finalizing nominations.

• Aggressive policy settings or high applicant demand, especially for priority occupations in healthcare, IT, and engineering.

• If you're targeting either VIC or NT, time is critical. There is limited capacity remaining, and these states may close early or tighten criteria for the final months of the fiscal year.

SA, QLD, TAS, and ACT: Balanced Opportunity Zones (Usage 48–69%)

These four states have demonstrated a measured and consistent approach:

• South Australia (SA) leads this group with nearly 69% usage, showing ongoing demand and a good pace of processing.

• Queensland (QLD) and Tasmania (TAS) have crossed the 50–60% mark, indicating room for new applicants while still maintaining active nomination rounds.

• ACT remains slightly more conservative at 48.5%, but this still reflects a functioning nomination pipeline.

SA, QLD, TAS, and ACT: Balanced Opportunity Zones (Usage 48–69%)

These four states have demonstrated a measured and consistent approach:

• South Australia (SA) leads this group with nearly 69% usage, showing ongoing demand and a good pace of processing.

• Queensland (QLD) and Tasmania (TAS) have crossed the 50–60% mark, indicating room for new applicants while still maintaining active nomination rounds.

• ACT remains slightly more conservative at 48.5%, but this still reflects a functioning nomination pipeline.

NSW and WA: Underutilized but High-Capacity States (38.1% and 31.0%)

New South Wales and Western Australia have used only 38.1% and 31.0% of their allocations respectively — the lowest across all jurisdictions, despite having among the largest nomination quotas (3,000 each). This contrast raises several points:

• These states may be deliberately reserving nominations for highly targeted occupations, or processing backlogs more slowly.

• Alternatively, they may be timing a major release round toward the end of the fiscal year (May–June), as has occurred in previous years.

• For well-qualified candidates, especially those with occupations on NSW or WA’s “offshore priority” or “critical skills” lists, this represents a significant upcoming opportunity.

Section 5: State Nomination Analysis for 491 Visa

This section compares the nomination usage and strategic advantages of Subclass 190 and Subclass 491 visas. We examine the trends in both visa types, how different states are handling nominations for each, and which visa subclass might be the best choice for applicants depending on their skills, experience, and desired location.

While Subclass 190 is often more competitive due to its higher points threshold and greater demand, Subclass 491 offers more flexibility for applicants willing to live and work in regional areas. This analysis will help applicants determine which pathway best aligns with their personal circumstances and future goals.

Summary Table: 491 Visa Nomination Usage by State (as of 28 Feb 2025)

• VIC leads to 491 usage with a rate of 76.8%, showing high demand or fast processing.

• NSW and WA are the most conservative, using only 34.7% and 42.9% of their large allocations (2,000 each).

• Mid-range usage states like TAS, SA, QLD, and ACT remain attractive for new applications with decent remaining quota.

• Applicants targeting regional migration pathways may consider NT, ACT, or TAS for flexibility and quota availability.

Comparing the 190 and 491 visa nomination usage:

1. States show strong visa preference:

• VIC and NT prefer 190 visas heavily, with VIC reaching 91.3% usage, while VIC 491 is also high at 76.8%.

• TAS and ACT lean toward 491, with higher usage for 491 than 190, suggesting support for regional migration programs.

2. NSW and WA are under-utilizing quotas:

• Despite having the largest allocations, NSW and WA have low usage rates for both 190 and 491 — potential due to policy caution or stricter criteria.

3. Strategic opportunities:

• Best states for 491: TAS, ACT, WA, NT — all have 40%+ remaining.

• Remaining windows for 190: SA, QLD — not yet full but steadily progressing.

Conclusion and Outlook: Strategic Planning for Applicants

This analysis provides a clear picture of the evolving Australian skilled migration landscape as of early 2025.

The immigration journey is undoubtedly complex and competitive, but with the right strategy and timely action, Australia’s skilled migration pathways present tremendous opportunities for global talent. As we reflect on the 2024-25 period, the trends point toward a promising future for skilled migrants, especially in light of the Labor Party’s ongoing influence, which is likely to bring about more favorable immigration policies, including accelerated processing speeds and further opportunities for skilled workers.

For applicants targeting the 189 or 190/491 visas, the window for success remains wide open, especially with predicted invitation rounds still expected before June 2025. Policy changes post-election are expected to create an even more supportive environment for skilled migration in the coming years, including reduced backlogs and faster processing speeds.

The evolving political landscape, with Labor in a stronger position, suggests that 2025-26 could usher in even more streamlined pathways for skilled workers, especially those seeking to contribute to Australia’s growing industries.

As the opportunities grow, it’s essential to act quickly and strategically. By staying informed on migration trends, applying to the right states, and monitoring nomination windows, applicants can maximize their chances of success. NovenAI is here to support you through every stage of the immigration process. Trained on real cases and extensive official databases, our tailored insights into your skill assessment and visa application ensure that you are on the best path to achieving your migration goals.

Don’t miss out on this opportunity to improve your success rate while others are making their moves. Visit novenai.com today for comprehensive support and expert guidance that will help you stay ahead of the competition.